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Aqar Data Analysis

Inventory Impact on Contacts: Riyadh Temporal Analysis

Date: 2026-01-15 Analysis Period: 2024-01-01 to 2026-01-15 Focus: Riyadh - Villa, Apartment, Big Flat, Land (Sale & Rent) Filter: Listings with ≥10 views/month only (excludes low-visibility listings)

Executive Summary

Section titled “Executive Summary”

This analysis examines how inventory levels affect contact rates over time in Riyadh across four key property categories. By filtering to listings with meaningful visibility (≥10 views/month), we focus on active market participants.

Key Findings

Section titled “Key Findings”
  1. Rental markets maintain stable contacts/listing despite inventory growth (30-140% YoY)
  2. Sales markets show severe contact dilution - contacts/listing dropped 40-68% YoY as inventory surged
  3. Land for Sale is the exception - inventory decreased 25-60% while contacts/listing shows mixed trends
  4. Correlation strengthens over time - negative correlation between inventory and contacts/listing became more pronounced in 2025, reaching -0.41 for Villa for Sale
Section titled “Monthly Trends by Category”

Apartment for Rent (الشقق للإيجار)

Section titled “Apartment for Rent (الشقق للإيجار)”
PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 202410,10131.374.30%
Jun 202410,53225.513.85%
Dec 202420,44419.894.74%
Jun 202525,13921.136.18%
Dec 202525,19823.766.62%

Trend: Inventory increased 149%, contacts/listing dropped 24%, but contact rate improved 54%.

Inventory Growth:   ████████████████████████████████████████████████ +149%
Contacts/Listing:   ██████████ -24%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████ +54%

Apartment for Sale (الشقق للبيع)

Section titled “Apartment for Sale (الشقق للبيع)”
PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 20244,45410.652.91%
Jun 20245,0178.172.91%
Dec 20247,12212.123.88%
Jun 20257,0146.353.69%
Dec 202510,3013.953.31%

Trend: Inventory increased 131%, contacts/listing collapsed 63%. Classic supply glut.

Inventory Growth:   ██████████████████████████████████████████ +131%
Contacts/Listing:   ████████████████████████ -63%
Contact Rate:       ████████████ +14%

Villa for Rent (الفلل للإيجار)

Section titled “Villa for Rent (الفلل للإيجار)”
PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 20242,33712.673.70%
Jun 20242,09316.764.26%
Dec 20243,78111.194.47%
Jun 20253,63116.156.45%
Dec 20254,26413.486.12%

Trend: Inventory up 82%, contacts/listing stable (+6%). Healthy rental demand.

Inventory Growth:   ██████████████████████████████ +82%
Contacts/Listing:   ██ +6%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████████████ +65%

Villa for Sale (الفلل للبيع)

Section titled “Villa for Sale (الفلل للبيع)”
PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 202415,9077.472.46%
Jun 202413,8497.702.66%
Dec 202417,0629.443.06%
Jun 202510,9037.932.75%
Dec 202517,7635.052.86%

Trend: Inventory fluctuated, ending +12%. Contacts/listing dropped 32%. Market saturation evident.

Inventory Growth:   ████ +12%
Contacts/Listing:   ████████████ -32%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████ +16%

Big Flat for Rent (الأدوار للإيجار)

Section titled “Big Flat for Rent (الأدوار للإيجار)”
PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 20241,50222.483.45%
Jun 20241,28724.653.63%
Dec 20242,31616.794.06%
Jun 20252,49027.226.10%
Dec 20253,06820.305.65%

Trend: Inventory doubled (+104%), contacts/listing stable (-10%). Strong demand resilience.

Inventory Growth:   ████████████████████████████████████████ +104%
Contacts/Listing:   ████ -10%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████████████ +64%

Big Flat for Sale (الأدوار للبيع)

Section titled “Big Flat for Sale (الأدوار للبيع)”
PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 20242,9707.933.49%
Jun 20243,8276.033.39%
Dec 20246,4218.424.22%
Jun 20256,2984.844.29%
Dec 20259,6952.693.37%

Trend: Inventory up 226%, contacts/listing collapsed 66%. Severe oversupply crisis.

Inventory Growth:   ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ +226%
Contacts/Listing:   ████████████████████████ -66%
Contact Rate:       ██ -3%

Land for Rent (الأراضي للإيجار)

Section titled “Land for Rent (الأراضي للإيجار)”
PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 20244497.464.33%
Jun 20244855.464.31%
Dec 20245846.805.38%
Jun 20255487.327.17%
Dec 20256936.847.55%

Trend: Modest growth (+54%), contacts/listing stable (-8%). Niche market consistency.

Inventory Growth:   ██████████████████████ +54%
Contacts/Listing:   ███ -8%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████████ +74%

Land for Sale (الأراضي للبيع) ⭐ Unique Pattern

Section titled “Land for Sale (الأراضي للبيع) ⭐ Unique Pattern”
PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 202413,7686.254.22%
Jun 202410,0306.974.28%
Dec 20249,7108.984.46%
Jun 20256,4776.884.64%
Dec 20258,5986.775.32%

Trend: Inventory contracted 38%, contacts/listing increased 8%. Supply reduction may reflect regulatory changes.

Inventory Change:   ███████████████ -38%
Contacts/Listing:   ███ +8%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████ +26%

Year-over-Year Comparison (2024 vs 2025)

Section titled “Year-over-Year Comparison (2024 vs 2025)”

Rental Categories - Resilient Demand

Section titled “Rental Categories - Resilient Demand”
CategoryInventory YoY RangeCPL YoY RangePattern
Apartment for Rent+23% to +139%—36% to +20%Demand scaling
Villa for Rent+13% to +74%—10% to +21%Healthy balance
Big Flat for Rent+33% to +94%—28% to +25%Strong absorption
Land for Rent+4% to +30%—10% to +38%Stable niche

Pattern: Rental markets absorbed 50-100%+ inventory growth while maintaining contacts per listing within ±30%.

Sales Categories - Supply Glut Crisis

Section titled “Sales Categories - Supply Glut Crisis”
CategoryInventory YoY RangeCPL YoY RangePattern
Apartment for Sale+11% to +56%—67% to +60%H2 collapse
Villa for Sale—50% to +4%—46% to +157%Volatile, declining
Big Flat for Sale+23% to +111%—68% to +66%Severe H2 dilution
Land for Sale—59% to -11%—29% to +136%Contracting supply

Pattern: Sales markets experienced dramatic contact dilution in H2 2025, with CPL dropping 40-68% YoY.

Section titled “Quarterly Correlation Trends”

The correlation between inventory and contacts/listing at the district level:

Apartment for Rent

Section titled “Apartment for Rent”
QuarterDistrictsCorrelationAvg InventoryAvg CPL
Q1 202497—0.38116075.36
Q2 2024101—0.34216376.24
Q3 2024109—0.39321189.68
Q4 2024108—0.32725864.82
Q1 2025117—0.38627352.30
Q2 2025122—0.36529068.07
Q3 2025124—0.34831176.97
Q4 2025126—0.33030969.14

Insight: Consistent negative correlation (~-0.35). High-inventory districts reliably show lower CPL.

Villa for Sale

Section titled “Villa for Sale”
QuarterDistrictsCorrelationAvg InventoryAvg CPL
Q1 2024101—0.29819221.56
Q2 2024102—0.29918922.71
Q3 2024107—0.29520729.69
Q4 2024104—0.35721531.98
Q1 202599—0.38517539.45
Q2 202598—0.39113229.89
Q3 2025103-0.39618427.24
Q4 2025107-0.40719519.48

Insight: Correlation strengthened from -0.30 to -0.41 over the period. Competition intensified significantly.

Big Flat for Sale

Section titled “Big Flat for Sale”
QuarterDistrictsCorrelationAvg InventoryAvg CPL
Q1 202440—0.3648834.76
Q2 202441—0.37711127.20
Q3 202448—0.38413439.97
Q4 202450—0.28615035.60
Q1 202556—0.38413040.89
Q2 202556-0.39412125.82
Q3 202572—0.33112728.77
Q4 202575-0.39413915.58

Insight: Strong negative correlation throughout. CPL collapsed from 35 to 16 as market expanded.

Land for Sale

Section titled “Land for Sale”
QuarterDistrictsCorrelationAvg InventoryAvg CPL
Q1 2024110-0.00715315.03
Q2 2024106—0.11713118.40
Q3 2024110—0.04114621.36
Q4 2024108—0.22813421.84
Q1 2025106—0.13910326.30
Q2 202591-0.2658626.22
Q3 2025108—0.1809226.01
Q4 2025107—0.1829818.94

Insight: Started with near-zero correlation, shifted moderately negative as supply contracted.

Key Insights & Implications

Section titled “Key Insights & Implications”

1. Rental vs Sales Divergence

Section titled “1. Rental vs Sales Divergence”

The rental market demonstrates network effects:

  • More inventory → more seekers → stable per-listing engagement
  • Contact rate improving (4.3% → 6.6% for apartments)

The sales market shows supply dilution:

  • Fixed buyer pool spread across growing inventory
  • Per-listing engagement dropping 40-68%

2. Seasonal Patterns

Section titled “2. Seasonal Patterns”
SeasonEffect
AugustPeak contacts - relocation season
FebruaryTrough - lowest engagement
Q4Softening - end-of-year decline
RamadanVariable impact by category

3. 2025 Sales Market Warning Signs

Section titled “3. 2025 Sales Market Warning Signs”

The dramatic CPL drops signal:

  • Oversupply crisis in apartments and big flats for sale
  • Price adjustment pressure expected
  • Promotion opportunity - SOV/Golden campaigns more valuable

4. Land Market Anomaly

Section titled “4. Land Market Anomaly”

Unlike other categories, Land for Sale:

  • Inventory decreased 38% (regulatory? consolidation?)
  • CPL remained stable
  • May indicate shift to institutional holdings

Market Health Summary

Section titled “Market Health Summary”
CategoryHealthInventory ΔCPL ΔRecommendation
Apartment for Rent✅ Strong+149%—24%Expand in undersupplied districts
Villa for Rent✅ Healthy+82%+6%Stable growth opportunity
Big Flat for Rent✅ Growing+104%—10%Monitor for 2026 saturation
Land for Rent✅ Stable+54%—8%Niche, maintain levels
Apartment for Sale⚠️ Oversupplied+131%—63%Price pressure, promote
Villa for Sale⚠️ Saturated+12%—32%Differentiation needed
Big Flat for Sale🔴 Crisis+226%—66%Expect corrections
Land for Sale📊 Contracting—38%+8%Monitor regulatory impact

SQL Queries Used

Section titled “SQL Queries Used”
Section titled “Monthly Trends (Filtered for ≥10 views/month)”
WITH
  monthly_listing_stats AS (
    SELECT
      s.id AS listing_id,
      l.category AS category_id,
      l.district_id,
      toStartOfMonth (toDate (s.day_time)) AS MONTH,
      sum(s.views) AS monthly_views,
      sum(s.calls + s.whatsapp + s.msgs) AS monthly_contacts
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
      JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
      JOIN sadb_districts d FINAL ON l.district_id = d.district_id
    WHERE
      l._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
      AND toDate (s.day_time) >= '2024-01-01'
      AND d.city_name = 'الرياض'
    GROUP BY
      s.id,
      l.category,
      l.district_id,
      MONTH
    HAVING
      monthly_views >= 10 -- Filter: minimum 10 views per month
  )
SELECT
  c.name_en AS category,
  mls.month,
  count(DISTINCT mls.listing_id) AS inventory,
  sum(mls.monthly_contacts) AS total_contacts,
  sum(mls.monthly_views) AS total_views,
  round(
    sum(mls.monthly_contacts) / count(DISTINCT mls.listing_id),
    2
  ) AS contacts_per_listing,
  round(
    sum(mls.monthly_contacts) / nullIf(sum(mls.monthly_views), 0) * 100,
    2
  ) AS contact_rate_pct
FROM
  monthly_listing_stats mls
  JOIN sadb_categories c FINAL ON mls.category_id = c.category_id
WHERE
  c.name_en IN (
    'Villa for Sale',
    'Villa for Rent',
    'Apartment for Sale',
    'Apartment for Rent',
    'Big Flat for Sale',
    'Big Flat for Rent',
    'Land for Sale',
    'Land for Rent'
  )
GROUP BY
  c.name_en,
  mls.month
ORDER BY
  category,
  MONTH

Quarterly District Correlation (Filtered for ≥30 views/quarter)

Section titled “Quarterly District Correlation (Filtered for ≥30 views/quarter)”
WITH
  quarterly_listing_stats AS (
    SELECT
      s.id AS listing_id,
      l.category AS category_id,
      d.district_name,
      toStartOfQuarter (toDate (s.day_time)) AS quarter,
      sum(s.views) AS quarterly_views,
      sum(s.calls + s.whatsapp + s.msgs) AS quarterly_contacts
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
      JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
      JOIN sadb_districts d FINAL ON l.district_id = d.district_id
    WHERE
      l._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
      AND toDate (s.day_time) >= '2024-01-01'
      AND d.city_name = 'الرياض'
    GROUP BY
      s.id,
      l.category,
      d.district_name,
      quarter
    HAVING
      quarterly_views >= 30 -- ~10 views/month * 3 months
  ),
  quarterly_district AS (
    SELECT
      c.name_en AS category,
      qls.quarter,
      qls.district_name,
      count(DISTINCT qls.listing_id) AS inventory,
      sum(qls.quarterly_contacts) AS total_contacts
    FROM
      quarterly_listing_stats qls
      JOIN sadb_categories c FINAL ON qls.category_id = c.category_id
    WHERE
      c.name_en IN (
        'Villa for Sale',
        'Villa for Rent',
        'Apartment for Sale',
        'Apartment for Rent',
        'Big Flat for Sale',
        'Big Flat for Rent',
        'Land for Sale',
        'Land for Rent'
      )
    GROUP BY
      c.name_en,
      qls.quarter,
      qls.district_name
    HAVING
      inventory >= 10
  )
SELECT
  category,
  quarter,
  count(*) AS num_districts,
  round(corr(inventory, total_contacts / inventory), 3) AS corr_inv_contacts_per_listing,
  round(avg(inventory), 0) AS avg_inventory,
  round(avg(total_contacts / inventory), 2) AS avg_contacts_per_listing
FROM
  quarterly_district
GROUP BY
  category,
  quarter
HAVING
  num_districts >= 10
ORDER BY
  category,
  quarter

Year-over-Year Comparison (Filtered)

Section titled “Year-over-Year Comparison (Filtered)”
WITH
  monthly_listing_stats AS (
    SELECT
      s.id AS listing_id,
      l.category AS category_id,
      toMonth (toDate (s.day_time)) AS month_num,
      toYear (toDate (s.day_time)) AS YEAR,
      sum(s.views) AS monthly_views,
      sum(s.calls + s.whatsapp + s.msgs) AS monthly_contacts
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
      JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
      JOIN sadb_districts d FINAL ON l.district_id = d.district_id
    WHERE
      l._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
      AND toDate (s.day_time) >= '2024-01-01'
      AND d.city_name = 'الرياض'
    GROUP BY
      s.id,
      l.category,
      month_num,
      YEAR
    HAVING
      monthly_views >= 10
  ),
  monthly_agg AS (
    SELECT
      c.name_en AS category,
      mls.month_num,
      mls.year,
      count(DISTINCT mls.listing_id) AS inventory,
      round(
        sum(mls.monthly_contacts) / count(DISTINCT mls.listing_id),
        2
      ) AS contacts_per_listing
    FROM
      monthly_listing_stats mls
      JOIN sadb_categories c FINAL ON mls.category_id = c.category_id
    WHERE
      c.name_en IN (
        'Villa for Sale',
        'Villa for Rent',
        'Apartment for Sale',
        'Apartment for Rent',
        'Big Flat for Sale',
        'Big Flat for Rent',
        'Land for Sale',
        'Land for Rent'
      )
    GROUP BY
      c.name_en,
      mls.month_num,
      mls.year
  )
SELECT
  category,
  month_num,
  maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2024) AS inventory_2024,
  maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2024) AS cpl_2024,
  maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2025) AS inventory_2025,
  maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2025) AS cpl_2025,
  round(
    (
      maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2025) - maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2024)
    ) / maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2024) * 100,
    1
  ) AS inventory_yoy_pct,
  round(
    (
      maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2025) - maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2024)
    ) / maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2024) * 100,
    1
  ) AS cpl_yoy_pct
FROM
  monthly_agg
WHERE
  YEAR IN (2024, 2025)
GROUP BY
  category,
  month_num
HAVING
  inventory_2024 > 0
  AND inventory_2025 > 0
ORDER BY
  category,
  month_num