Inventory Impact on Contacts: Riyadh Temporal Analysis

Date: 2026-01-15 Analysis Period: 2024-01-01 to 2026-01-15 Focus: Riyadh - Villa, Apartment, Big Flat, Land (Sale & Rent) Filter: Listings with ≥10 views/month only (excludes low-visibility listings)

Executive Summary

This analysis examines how inventory levels affect contact rates over time in Riyadh across four key property categories. By filtering to listings with meaningful visibility (≥10 views/month), we focus on active market participants.

Key Findings

1. Rental markets maintain stable contacts/listing despite inventory growth (30-140% YoY)
2. Sales markets show severe contact dilution - contacts/listing dropped 40-68% YoY as inventory surged
3. Land for Sale is the exception - inventory decreased 25-60% while contacts/listing shows mixed trends
4. Correlation strengthens over time - negative correlation between inventory and contacts/listing became more pronounced in 2025, reaching -0.41 for Villa for Sale

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Monthly Trends by Category

Apartment for Rent (الشقق للإيجار)

Period	Inventory	Contacts/Listing	Contact Rate %
Jan 2024	10,101	31.37	4.30%
Jun 2024	10,532	25.51	3.85%
Dec 2024	20,444	19.89	4.74%
Jun 2025	25,139	21.13	6.18%
Dec 2025	25,198	23.76	6.62%

Trend: Inventory increased 149%, contacts/listing dropped 24%, but contact rate improved 54%.

Inventory Growth:   ████████████████████████████████████████████████ +149%
Contacts/Listing:   ██████████ -24%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████ +54%

Apartment for Sale (الشقق للبيع)

Period	Inventory	Contacts/Listing	Contact Rate %
Jan 2024	4,454	10.65	2.91%
Jun 2024	5,017	8.17	2.91%
Dec 2024	7,122	12.12	3.88%
Jun 2025	7,014	6.35	3.69%
Dec 2025	10,301	3.95	3.31%

Trend: Inventory increased 131%, contacts/listing collapsed 63%. Classic supply glut.

Inventory Growth:   ██████████████████████████████████████████ +131%
Contacts/Listing:   ████████████████████████ -63%
Contact Rate:       ████████████ +14%

Villa for Rent (الفلل للإيجار)

Period	Inventory	Contacts/Listing	Contact Rate %
Jan 2024	2,337	12.67	3.70%
Jun 2024	2,093	16.76	4.26%
Dec 2024	3,781	11.19	4.47%
Jun 2025	3,631	16.15	6.45%
Dec 2025	4,264	13.48	6.12%

Trend: Inventory up 82%, contacts/listing stable (+6%). Healthy rental demand.

Inventory Growth:   ██████████████████████████████ +82%
Contacts/Listing:   ██ +6%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████████████ +65%

Villa for Sale (الفلل للبيع)

Period	Inventory	Contacts/Listing	Contact Rate %
Jan 2024	15,907	7.47	2.46%
Jun 2024	13,849	7.70	2.66%
Dec 2024	17,062	9.44	3.06%
Jun 2025	10,903	7.93	2.75%
Dec 2025	17,763	5.05	2.86%

Trend: Inventory fluctuated, ending +12%. Contacts/listing dropped 32%. Market saturation evident.

Inventory Growth:   ████ +12%
Contacts/Listing:   ████████████ -32%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████ +16%

Big Flat for Rent (الأدوار للإيجار)

Period	Inventory	Contacts/Listing	Contact Rate %
Jan 2024	1,502	22.48	3.45%
Jun 2024	1,287	24.65	3.63%
Dec 2024	2,316	16.79	4.06%
Jun 2025	2,490	27.22	6.10%
Dec 2025	3,068	20.30	5.65%

Trend: Inventory doubled (+104%), contacts/listing stable (-10%). Strong demand resilience.

Inventory Growth:   ████████████████████████████████████████ +104%
Contacts/Listing:   ████ -10%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████████████ +64%

Big Flat for Sale (الأدوار للبيع)

Period	Inventory	Contacts/Listing	Contact Rate %
Jan 2024	2,970	7.93	3.49%
Jun 2024	3,827	6.03	3.39%
Dec 2024	6,421	8.42	4.22%
Jun 2025	6,298	4.84	4.29%
Dec 2025	9,695	2.69	3.37%

Trend: Inventory up 226%, contacts/listing collapsed 66%. Severe oversupply crisis.

Inventory Growth:   ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ +226%
Contacts/Listing:   ████████████████████████ -66%
Contact Rate:       ██ -3%

Land for Rent (الأراضي للإيجار)

Period	Inventory	Contacts/Listing	Contact Rate %
Jan 2024	449	7.46	4.33%
Jun 2024	485	5.46	4.31%
Dec 2024	584	6.80	5.38%
Jun 2025	548	7.32	7.17%
Dec 2025	693	6.84	7.55%

Trend: Modest growth (+54%), contacts/listing stable (-8%). Niche market consistency.

Inventory Growth:   ██████████████████████ +54%
Contacts/Listing:   ███ -8%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████████ +74%

Land for Sale (الأراضي للبيع) ⭐ Unique Pattern

Period	Inventory	Contacts/Listing	Contact Rate %
Jan 2024	13,768	6.25	4.22%
Jun 2024	10,030	6.97	4.28%
Dec 2024	9,710	8.98	4.46%
Jun 2025	6,477	6.88	4.64%
Dec 2025	8,598	6.77	5.32%

Trend: Inventory contracted 38%, contacts/listing increased 8%. Supply reduction may reflect regulatory changes.

Inventory Change:   ███████████████ -38%
Contacts/Listing:   ███ +8%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████ +26%

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Year-over-Year Comparison (2024 vs 2025)

Rental Categories - Resilient Demand

Category	Inventory YoY Range	CPL YoY Range	Pattern
Apartment for Rent	+23% to +139%	–36% to +20%	Demand scaling
Villa for Rent	+13% to +74%	–10% to +21%	Healthy balance
Big Flat for Rent	+33% to +94%	–28% to +25%	Strong absorption
Land for Rent	+4% to +30%	–10% to +38%	Stable niche

Pattern: Rental markets absorbed 50-100%+ inventory growth while maintaining contacts per listing within ±30%.

Sales Categories - Supply Glut Crisis

Category	Inventory YoY Range	CPL YoY Range	Pattern
Apartment for Sale	+11% to +56%	–67% to +60%	H2 collapse
Villa for Sale	–50% to +4%	–46% to +157%	Volatile, declining
Big Flat for Sale	+23% to +111%	–68% to +66%	Severe H2 dilution
Land for Sale	–59% to -11%	–29% to +136%	Contracting supply

Pattern: Sales markets experienced dramatic contact dilution in H2 2025, with CPL dropping 40-68% YoY.

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Quarterly Correlation Trends

The correlation between inventory and contacts/listing at the district level:

Apartment for Rent

Quarter	Districts	Correlation	Avg Inventory	Avg CPL
Q1 2024	97	–0.381	160	75.36
Q2 2024	101	–0.342	163	76.24
Q3 2024	109	–0.393	211	89.68
Q4 2024	108	–0.327	258	64.82
Q1 2025	117	–0.386	273	52.30
Q2 2025	122	–0.365	290	68.07
Q3 2025	124	–0.348	311	76.97
Q4 2025	126	–0.330	309	69.14

Insight: Consistent negative correlation (~-0.35). High-inventory districts reliably show lower CPL.

Villa for Sale

Quarter	Districts	Correlation	Avg Inventory	Avg CPL
Q1 2024	101	–0.298	192	21.56
Q2 2024	102	–0.299	189	22.71
Q3 2024	107	–0.295	207	29.69
Q4 2024	104	–0.357	215	31.98
Q1 2025	99	–0.385	175	39.45
Q2 2025	98	–0.391	132	29.89
Q3 2025	103	-0.396	184	27.24
Q4 2025	107	-0.407	195	19.48

Insight: Correlation strengthened from -0.30 to -0.41 over the period. Competition intensified significantly.

Big Flat for Sale

Quarter	Districts	Correlation	Avg Inventory	Avg CPL
Q1 2024	40	–0.364	88	34.76
Q2 2024	41	–0.377	111	27.20
Q3 2024	48	–0.384	134	39.97
Q4 2024	50	–0.286	150	35.60
Q1 2025	56	–0.384	130	40.89
Q2 2025	56	-0.394	121	25.82
Q3 2025	72	–0.331	127	28.77
Q4 2025	75	-0.394	139	15.58

Insight: Strong negative correlation throughout. CPL collapsed from 35 to 16 as market expanded.

Land for Sale

Quarter	Districts	Correlation	Avg Inventory	Avg CPL
Q1 2024	110	-0.007	153	15.03
Q2 2024	106	–0.117	131	18.40
Q3 2024	110	–0.041	146	21.36
Q4 2024	108	–0.228	134	21.84
Q1 2025	106	–0.139	103	26.30
Q2 2025	91	-0.265	86	26.22
Q3 2025	108	–0.180	92	26.01
Q4 2025	107	–0.182	98	18.94

Insight: Started with near-zero correlation, shifted moderately negative as supply contracted.

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Key Insights & Implications

1. Rental vs Sales Divergence

The rental market demonstrates network effects:

• More inventory → more seekers → stable per-listing engagement
• Contact rate improving (4.3% → 6.6% for apartments)

The sales market shows supply dilution:

• Fixed buyer pool spread across growing inventory
• Per-listing engagement dropping 40-68%

2. Seasonal Patterns

Season	Effect
August	Peak contacts - relocation season
February	Trough - lowest engagement
Q4	Softening - end-of-year decline
Ramadan	Variable impact by category

3. 2025 Sales Market Warning Signs

The dramatic CPL drops signal:

• Oversupply crisis in apartments and big flats for sale
• Price adjustment pressure expected
• Promotion opportunity - SOV/Golden campaigns more valuable

4. Land Market Anomaly

Unlike other categories, Land for Sale:

• Inventory decreased 38% (regulatory? consolidation?)
• CPL remained stable
• May indicate shift to institutional holdings

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Market Health Summary

Category	Health	Inventory Δ	CPL Δ	Recommendation
Apartment for Rent	✅ Strong	+149%	–24%	Expand in undersupplied districts
Villa for Rent	✅ Healthy	+82%	+6%	Stable growth opportunity
Big Flat for Rent	✅ Growing	+104%	–10%	Monitor for 2026 saturation
Land for Rent	✅ Stable	+54%	–8%	Niche, maintain levels
Apartment for Sale	⚠️ Oversupplied	+131%	–63%	Price pressure, promote
Villa for Sale	⚠️ Saturated	+12%	–32%	Differentiation needed
Big Flat for Sale	🔴 Crisis	+226%	–66%	Expect corrections
Land for Sale	📊 Contracting	–38%	+8%	Monitor regulatory impact

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SQL Queries Used

Monthly Trends (Filtered for ≥10 views/month)

WITH
  monthly_listing_stats AS (
    SELECT
      s.id AS listing_id,
      l.category AS category_id,
      l.district_id,
      toStartOfMonth(toDate(s.day_time)) AS MONTH,
      sum(s.views) AS monthly_views,
      sum(s.calls + s.whatsapp + s.msgs) AS monthly_contacts
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
      JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
      JOIN sadb_districts d FINAL ON l.district_id = d.district_id
    WHERE
      l._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
      AND toDate(s.day_time) >= '2024-01-01'
      AND d.city_name = 'الرياض'
    GROUP BY
      s.id,
      l.category,
      l.district_id,
      MONTH
    HAVING
      monthly_views >= 10 -- Filter: minimum 10 views per month
  )
SELECT
  c.name_en AS category,
  mls.month,
  count(DISTINCT mls.listing_id) AS inventory,
  sum(mls.monthly_contacts) AS total_contacts,
  sum(mls.monthly_views) AS total_views,
  round(
    sum(mls.monthly_contacts) / count(DISTINCT mls.listing_id),
    2
  ) AS contacts_per_listing,
  round(
    sum(mls.monthly_contacts) / nullIf(sum(mls.monthly_views), 0) * 100,
    2
  ) AS contact_rate_pct
FROM
  monthly_listing_stats mls
  JOIN sadb_categories c FINAL ON mls.category_id = c.category_id
WHERE
  c.name_en IN (
    'Villa for Sale',
    'Villa for Rent',
    'Apartment for Sale',
    'Apartment for Rent',
    'Big Flat for Sale',
    'Big Flat for Rent',
    'Land for Sale',
    'Land for Rent'
  )
GROUP BY
  c.name_en,
  mls.month
ORDER BY
  category,
  MONTH

Quarterly District Correlation (Filtered for ≥30 views/quarter)

WITH
  quarterly_listing_stats AS (
    SELECT
      s.id AS listing_id,
      l.category AS category_id,
      d.district_name,
      toStartOfQuarter(toDate(s.day_time)) AS quarter,
      sum(s.views) AS quarterly_views,
      sum(s.calls + s.whatsapp + s.msgs) AS quarterly_contacts
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
      JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
      JOIN sadb_districts d FINAL ON l.district_id = d.district_id
    WHERE
      l._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
      AND toDate(s.day_time) >= '2024-01-01'
      AND d.city_name = 'الرياض'
    GROUP BY
      s.id,
      l.category,
      d.district_name,
      quarter
    HAVING
      quarterly_views >= 30 -- ~10 views/month * 3 months
  ),
  quarterly_district AS (
    SELECT
      c.name_en AS category,
      qls.quarter,
      qls.district_name,
      count(DISTINCT qls.listing_id) AS inventory,
      sum(qls.quarterly_contacts) AS total_contacts
    FROM
      quarterly_listing_stats qls
      JOIN sadb_categories c FINAL ON qls.category_id = c.category_id
    WHERE
      c.name_en IN (
        'Villa for Sale',
        'Villa for Rent',
        'Apartment for Sale',
        'Apartment for Rent',
        'Big Flat for Sale',
        'Big Flat for Rent',
        'Land for Sale',
        'Land for Rent'
      )
    GROUP BY
      c.name_en,
      qls.quarter,
      qls.district_name
    HAVING
      inventory >= 10
  )
SELECT
  category,
  quarter,
  count(*) AS num_districts,
  round(corr(inventory, total_contacts / inventory), 3) AS corr_inv_contacts_per_listing,
  round(avg(inventory), 0) AS avg_inventory,
  round(avg(total_contacts / inventory), 2) AS avg_contacts_per_listing
FROM
  quarterly_district
GROUP BY
  category,
  quarter
HAVING
  num_districts >= 10
ORDER BY
  category,
  quarter

Year-over-Year Comparison (Filtered)

WITH
  monthly_listing_stats AS (
    SELECT
      s.id AS listing_id,
      l.category AS category_id,
      toMonth(toDate(s.day_time)) AS month_num,
      toYear(toDate(s.day_time)) AS YEAR,
      sum(s.views) AS monthly_views,
      sum(s.calls + s.whatsapp + s.msgs) AS monthly_contacts
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
      JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
      JOIN sadb_districts d FINAL ON l.district_id = d.district_id
    WHERE
      l._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
      AND toDate(s.day_time) >= '2024-01-01'
      AND d.city_name = 'الرياض'
    GROUP BY
      s.id,
      l.category,
      month_num,
      YEAR
    HAVING
      monthly_views >= 10
  ),
  monthly_agg AS (
    SELECT
      c.name_en AS category,
      mls.month_num,
      mls.year,
      count(DISTINCT mls.listing_id) AS inventory,
      round(
        sum(mls.monthly_contacts) / count(DISTINCT mls.listing_id),
        2
      ) AS contacts_per_listing
    FROM
      monthly_listing_stats mls
      JOIN sadb_categories c FINAL ON mls.category_id = c.category_id
    WHERE
      c.name_en IN (
        'Villa for Sale',
        'Villa for Rent',
        'Apartment for Sale',
        'Apartment for Rent',
        'Big Flat for Sale',
        'Big Flat for Rent',
        'Land for Sale',
        'Land for Rent'
      )
    GROUP BY
      c.name_en,
      mls.month_num,
      mls.year
  )
SELECT
  category,
  month_num,
  maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2024) AS inventory_2024,
  maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2024) AS cpl_2024,
  maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2025) AS inventory_2025,
  maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2025) AS cpl_2025,
  round(
    (
      maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2025) - maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2024)
    ) / maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2024) * 100,
    1
  ) AS inventory_yoy_pct,
  round(
    (
      maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2025) - maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2024)
    ) / maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2024) * 100,
    1
  ) AS cpl_yoy_pct
FROM
  monthly_agg
WHERE
  YEAR IN (2024, 2025)
GROUP BY
  category,
  month_num
HAVING
  inventory_2024 > 0
  AND inventory_2025 > 0
ORDER BY
  category,
  month_num