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Aqar Data Analysis

Inventory vs Views Correlation Analysis

Date: 2026-01-14 Data Period: 2024-2025 Analyst: Claude Code

Executive Summary

Section titled “Executive Summary”

This analysis examines the correlation between listing inventory and views across Aqar’s top 5 property categories, with district-level granularity. Key findings:

  1. Platform-wide correlation is weak (0.18) - adding more listings doesn’t proportionally increase views
  2. Optimal inventory range: 140K-160K active listings platform-wide for maximum views/listing
  3. Villa for Sale experiencing market-wide demand collapse (-30-40% YoY across all top districts)
  4. Rental categories showing growth - Apartment for Rent and Villa for Rent are expanding
  5. Geographic shift: Jeddah apartment sales growing while Riyadh declining

Part 1: Historical Correlation (2020-2025)

Section titled “Part 1: Historical Correlation (2020-2025)”

Listings vs Views Over Time

Section titled “Listings vs Views Over Time”
YearNew ListingsTotal ViewsAvg Views/ListingActive Users
2020808,832672,973,495678.89N/A
20211,088,216714,033,854547.43N/A
20221,178,584622,827,389445.381,406,625
2023603,129438,941,972478.351,661,736
2024392,380437,583,087868.291,875,887
2025482,424421,725,270695.232,014,084

Key Observations

Section titled “Key Observations”
  1. Listings dropped 67% from 2022 peak (1.18M) to 2024 low (392K)
  2. Avg views/listing nearly doubled from 445 (2022) to 868 (2024)
  3. Active users grew 43% from 2022 to 2025 despite inventory decline
  4. 2023 regulatory changes caused the dramatic listing drop (REGA licensing enforcement)

Part 2: Platform-Wide Optimal Inventory

Section titled “Part 2: Platform-Wide Optimal Inventory”

Correlation Analysis

Section titled “Correlation Analysis”
MetricValue
Pearson Correlation (Listings ↔ Views)0.178 (Weak)
Avg Monthly Listings155,893
Avg Monthly Views35.8M

Optimal Inventory Buckets

Section titled “Optimal Inventory Buckets”
Inventory RangeMonthsAvg Views/ListingEngagement/Listing
< 140K72316.6
140K-160K62758.96
160K-180K72269.58
180K+41818.81

Optimal Platform Inventory: 140,000 - 160,000 active listings

At 180K+ listings, views per listing drop by 34% compared to optimal range.

Part 3: Category-Level Analysis

Section titled “Part 3: Category-Level Analysis”

Correlation by Category

Section titled “Correlation by Category”
CategoryDistrictsCorrelationAvg District ViewsInterpretation
Land for Sale3100.978237KLinear scaling
Villa for Rent890.960266KStrong demand
Apartment for Rent2800.9301.08MGrowth headroom
Villa for Sale2170.915677KMatched supply/demand
Apartment for Sale1730.661405KSaturated segments
Section titled “Monthly Trends by Category”
CategoryPeak MonthPeak Views2024→2025 Trend
Apartment for RentAug 202418.5MGrowing (+21%)
Villa for SaleAug 20249.5MDeclining (-36%)
Land for SaleAug 20245.3MDeclining (-27%)
Apartment for SaleAug 20244.4MStable
Villa for RentAug 20241.7MGrowing (+12%)

Part 4: District-Level Analysis

Section titled “Part 4: District-Level Analysis”

Apartment for Rent - Top Districts by Total Views

Section titled “Apartment for Rent - Top Districts by Total Views”
RankCityDistrictTotal ViewsYoY %Trend
1الرياضالنرجس11.4M+9.7%Stable
2الرياضالملقا8.5M—7.7%Stable
3الرياضالعارض8.3M—5.8%Stable
4الرياضظهرة لبن8.2M+8.4%Stable
5الرياضالمونسية7.7M+4.3%Stable

Fastest Growing (Apartment for Rent):

  • الرياض - السليمانية: +53.2% YoY
  • الخبر - الحمرا: +34.8% YoY
  • الدمام - الشعلة: +28.8% YoY

Villa for Sale - Top Districts (DECLINING)

Section titled “Villa for Sale - Top Districts (DECLINING)”
RankCityDistrictTotal ViewsYoY %Trend
1الرياضالنرجس7.2M—29.9%Declining
2الرياضالعارض5.6M—31.5%Declining
3الرياضالرمال5.6M—29.0%Declining
4الرياضالمهدية5.2M—39.4%Declining
5الرياضطويق4.3M—38.7%Declining

Critical Finding: Every top Villa for Sale district shows 29-40% YoY decline.

Land for Sale - Top Districts

Section titled “Land for Sale - Top Districts”
RankCityDistrictTotal ViewsYoY %Trend
1الرياضبنبان4.0M—22.2%Declining
2الرياضالنرجس3.2M—51.4%Declining
3الرياضالشرق2.9M—30.9%Declining

Villa for Rent - Fastest Growing

Section titled “Villa for Rent - Fastest Growing”
DistrictTotal ViewsYoY %
الرياض - الجنادرية0.5M+100.6%
الرياض - مطار الملك خالد0.7M+61.3%
الدمام - الشعلة0.3M+52.0%

Part 5: Optimal Inventory by District

Section titled “Part 5: Optimal Inventory by District”

Marginal Views per Listing by Inventory Size

Section titled “Marginal Views per Listing by Inventory Size”
Category< 500500-1K1K-2K2K-5K5K+Optimal
Apt for Rent1,6061,4571,4831,246866< 2K
Villa for Sale1,3821,1888501,018705< 1K
Villa for Rent998775513609—< 500
Apt for Sale871504499425171< 500
Land for Sale510520516577514Any
Section titled “Recommended Optimal Inventory per District”
CategoryOptimal per DistrictRationale
Apartment for Rent1,000-2,000Diminishing returns above 2K
Villa for Sale500-1,000Sharp decline above 1K
Villa for Rent200-500Premium market, small inventory
Apartment for Sale300-500Saturated in many districts
Land for SaleAnyLinear returns (distribute evenly)

Part 6: Oversupplied vs Undersupplied Districts

Section titled “Part 6: Oversupplied vs Undersupplied Districts”

Most Oversupplied (Reduce Inventory)

Section titled “Most Oversupplied (Reduce Inventory)”
CategoryCityDistrictCurrentOptimalOversupply
Apt for Saleالرياضالجنادرية20912+1,643%
Apt for Saleالدمامالشاطئ الغربي13210+1,220%
Apt for Saleالرياضالمهدية79475+959%
Apt for Rentالدمامالسيف10713+720%

Most Undersupplied (Growth Opportunity)

Section titled “Most Undersupplied (Growth Opportunity)”
CategoryCityDistrictCurrentOptimalGap
Apt for Rentابهادرة المنسك3873—49%
Apt for Rentجدةالفروسية3755—34%
Apt for Rentجدةالشاطئ4761—23%
Apt for Rentالدمامطيبة4457—23%

Part 7: Strategic Recommendations

Section titled “Part 7: Strategic Recommendations”

Immediate Actions

Section titled “Immediate Actions”
  1. Reduce Villa for Sale inventory in Riyadh by 20-30% - market-wide demand decline
  2. Expand Apartment for Rent in growing districts:
    • السليمانية (+53% growth)
    • الحمرا in Khobar (+35% growth)
    • الشعلة in Dammam (+29% growth)
  3. Redistribute Land for Sale from النرجس (-51%) to more stable areas

Market Positioning

Section titled “Market Positioning”
CategoryStrategyTarget Inventory
Apartment for RentExpand25K → 30K
Villa for SaleContract28K → 20K
Land for SaleRedistributeMaintain 28K, shift geography
Apartment for SaleShift to JeddahMaintain 32K
Villa for RentFocus premiumMaintain 5K

Key Metrics to Monitor

Section titled “Key Metrics to Monitor”
  1. Views per listing threshold: Maintain above 500 platform-wide
  2. Listings per active user ratio: Target 0.20-0.22
  3. District saturation: Alert when oversupply exceeds 200%

Appendix: SQL Queries Used

Section titled “Appendix: SQL Queries Used”

Platform Correlation Query

Section titled “Platform Correlation Query”
WITH
  monthly_data AS (
    SELECT
      toYear (toDate (day_time)) AS YEAR,
      toMonth (toDate (day_time)) AS MONTH,
      COUNT(DISTINCT id) AS listings,
      SUM(views) AS views
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats FINAL
    WHERE
      day_time > 0
      AND _peerdb_is_deleted = 0
      AND toYear (toDate (day_time)) >= 2024
      AND toYear (toDate (day_time)) <= 2025
    GROUP BY
      YEAR,
      MONTH
  )
SELECT
  ROUND(corr(listings, views), 4) AS correlation_listings_views,
  ROUND(avg(listings), 0) AS avg_monthly_listings,
  ROUND(avg(views), 0) AS avg_monthly_views
FROM
  monthly_data

District-Level Category Analysis Query

Section titled “District-Level Category Analysis Query”
SELECT
  d.city_name,
  d.district_name,
  SUM(s.views) AS total_views_2024_2025,
  SUM(
    CASE
      WHEN toYear (toDate (s.day_time)) = 2024 THEN s.views
      ELSE 0
    END
  ) AS views_2024,
  SUM(
    CASE
      WHEN toYear (toDate (s.day_time)) = 2025 THEN s.views
      ELSE 0
    END
  ) AS views_2025,
  ROUND(
    (views_2025 - views_2024) / NULLIF(views_2024, 0) * 100,
    1
  ) AS yoy_growth_pct
FROM
  sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
  JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
  JOIN sadb_districts d FINAL ON l.district_id = d.district_id
WHERE
  s.day_time > 0
  AND s._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
  AND l._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
  AND l.category = 1 -- Apartment for Rent
  AND toYear (toDate (s.day_time)) >= 2024
GROUP BY
  d.city_name,
  d.district_name
ORDER BY
  total_views_2024_2025 DESC

Optimal Inventory Bucket Query

Section titled “Optimal Inventory Bucket Query”
WITH
  district_stats AS (
    SELECT
      l.category,
      l.district_id,
      SUM(s.views) AS total_views,
      COUNT(DISTINCT s.id) AS total_listings
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
      JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
    WHERE
      toYear (toDate (s.day_time)) >= 2024
    GROUP BY
      l.category,
      l.district_id
    HAVING
      total_listings >= 50
  )
SELECT
  c.name_en AS category,
  CASE
    WHEN total_listings < 500 THEN '< 500'
    WHEN total_listings < 1000 THEN '500-1K'
    WHEN total_listings < 2000 THEN '1K-2K'
    ELSE '2K+'
  END AS inventory_bucket,
  COUNT(*) AS districts,
  ROUND(SUM(total_views) / SUM(total_listings), 0) AS marginal_views_per_listing
FROM
  district_stats
  JOIN sadb_categories c ON category = c.category_id
GROUP BY
  c.name_en,
  inventory_bucket

Data Quality Notes

Section titled “Data Quality Notes”
  • Data Period: 2024-01-01 to 2025-12-31
  • Filter Applied: _peerdb_is_deleted = 0 and FINAL modifier
  • Minimum Thresholds:
    • District analysis: ≥50 listings
    • Correlation analysis: ≥100 listings
  • Caveat: Pre-2024 data excluded due to regulatory changes affecting comparability