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Aqar Data Analysis

Inventory Impact on Contacts: Riyadh Temporal Analysis

Date: 2026-01-15 Analysis Period: 2024-01-01 to 2026-01-15 Focus: Riyadh - Villa, Apartment, Big Flat, Land (Sale & Rent) Filter: Listings with ≥10 views/month only (excludes low-visibility listings)

Executive Summary

This analysis examines how inventory levels affect contact rates over time in Riyadh across four key property categories. By filtering to listings with meaningful visibility (≥10 views/month), we focus on active market participants.

Key Findings

  1. Rental markets maintain stable contacts/listing despite inventory growth (30-140% YoY)
  2. Sales markets show severe contact dilution - contacts/listing dropped 40-68% YoY as inventory surged
  3. Land for Sale is the exception - inventory decreased 25-60% while contacts/listing shows mixed trends
  4. Correlation strengthens over time - negative correlation between inventory and contacts/listing became more pronounced in 2025, reaching -0.41 for Villa for Sale

Apartment for Rent (الشقق للإيجار)

PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 202410,10131.374.30%
Jun 202410,53225.513.85%
Dec 202420,44419.894.74%
Jun 202525,13921.136.18%
Dec 202525,19823.766.62%

Trend: Inventory increased 149%, contacts/listing dropped 24%, but contact rate improved 54%.

Inventory Growth:   ████████████████████████████████████████████████ +149%
Contacts/Listing:   ██████████ -24%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████ +54%

Apartment for Sale (الشقق للبيع)

PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 20244,45410.652.91%
Jun 20245,0178.172.91%
Dec 20247,12212.123.88%
Jun 20257,0146.353.69%
Dec 202510,3013.953.31%

Trend: Inventory increased 131%, contacts/listing collapsed 63%. Classic supply glut.

Inventory Growth:   ██████████████████████████████████████████ +131%
Contacts/Listing:   ████████████████████████ -63%
Contact Rate:       ████████████ +14%

Villa for Rent (الفلل للإيجار)

PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 20242,33712.673.70%
Jun 20242,09316.764.26%
Dec 20243,78111.194.47%
Jun 20253,63116.156.45%
Dec 20254,26413.486.12%

Trend: Inventory up 82%, contacts/listing stable (+6%). Healthy rental demand.

Inventory Growth:   ██████████████████████████████ +82%
Contacts/Listing:   ██ +6%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████████████ +65%

Villa for Sale (الفلل للبيع)

PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 202415,9077.472.46%
Jun 202413,8497.702.66%
Dec 202417,0629.443.06%
Jun 202510,9037.932.75%
Dec 202517,7635.052.86%

Trend: Inventory fluctuated, ending +12%. Contacts/listing dropped 32%. Market saturation evident.

Inventory Growth:   ████ +12%
Contacts/Listing:   ████████████ -32%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████ +16%

Big Flat for Rent (الأدوار للإيجار)

PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 20241,50222.483.45%
Jun 20241,28724.653.63%
Dec 20242,31616.794.06%
Jun 20252,49027.226.10%
Dec 20253,06820.305.65%

Trend: Inventory doubled (+104%), contacts/listing stable (-10%). Strong demand resilience.

Inventory Growth:   ████████████████████████████████████████ +104%
Contacts/Listing:   ████ -10%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████████████ +64%

Big Flat for Sale (الأدوار للبيع)

PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 20242,9707.933.49%
Jun 20243,8276.033.39%
Dec 20246,4218.424.22%
Jun 20256,2984.844.29%
Dec 20259,6952.693.37%

Trend: Inventory up 226%, contacts/listing collapsed 66%. Severe oversupply crisis.

Inventory Growth:   ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ +226%
Contacts/Listing:   ████████████████████████ -66%
Contact Rate:       ██ -3%

Land for Rent (الأراضي للإيجار)

PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 20244497.464.33%
Jun 20244855.464.31%
Dec 20245846.805.38%
Jun 20255487.327.17%
Dec 20256936.847.55%

Trend: Modest growth (+54%), contacts/listing stable (-8%). Niche market consistency.

Inventory Growth:   ██████████████████████ +54%
Contacts/Listing:   ███ -8%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████████ +74%

Land for Sale (الأراضي للبيع) ⭐ Unique Pattern

PeriodInventoryContacts/ListingContact Rate %
Jan 202413,7686.254.22%
Jun 202410,0306.974.28%
Dec 20249,7108.984.46%
Jun 20256,4776.884.64%
Dec 20258,5986.775.32%

Trend: Inventory contracted 38%, contacts/listing increased 8%. Supply reduction may reflect regulatory changes.

Inventory Change:   ███████████████ -38%
Contacts/Listing:   ███ +8%
Contact Rate:       ██████████████████████████ +26%

Year-over-Year Comparison (2024 vs 2025)

Rental Categories - Resilient Demand

CategoryInventory YoY RangeCPL YoY RangePattern
Apartment for Rent+23% to +139%—36% to +20%Demand scaling
Villa for Rent+13% to +74%—10% to +21%Healthy balance
Big Flat for Rent+33% to +94%—28% to +25%Strong absorption
Land for Rent+4% to +30%—10% to +38%Stable niche

Pattern: Rental markets absorbed 50-100%+ inventory growth while maintaining contacts per listing within ±30%.

Sales Categories - Supply Glut Crisis

CategoryInventory YoY RangeCPL YoY RangePattern
Apartment for Sale+11% to +56%—67% to +60%H2 collapse
Villa for Sale—50% to +4%—46% to +157%Volatile, declining
Big Flat for Sale+23% to +111%—68% to +66%Severe H2 dilution
Land for Sale—59% to -11%—29% to +136%Contracting supply

Pattern: Sales markets experienced dramatic contact dilution in H2 2025, with CPL dropping 40-68% YoY.

The correlation between inventory and contacts/listing at the district level:

Apartment for Rent

QuarterDistrictsCorrelationAvg InventoryAvg CPL
Q1 202497—0.38116075.36
Q2 2024101—0.34216376.24
Q3 2024109—0.39321189.68
Q4 2024108—0.32725864.82
Q1 2025117—0.38627352.30
Q2 2025122—0.36529068.07
Q3 2025124—0.34831176.97
Q4 2025126—0.33030969.14

Insight: Consistent negative correlation (~-0.35). High-inventory districts reliably show lower CPL.

Villa for Sale

QuarterDistrictsCorrelationAvg InventoryAvg CPL
Q1 2024101—0.29819221.56
Q2 2024102—0.29918922.71
Q3 2024107—0.29520729.69
Q4 2024104—0.35721531.98
Q1 202599—0.38517539.45
Q2 202598—0.39113229.89
Q3 2025103-0.39618427.24
Q4 2025107-0.40719519.48

Insight: Correlation strengthened from -0.30 to -0.41 over the period. Competition intensified significantly.

Big Flat for Sale

QuarterDistrictsCorrelationAvg InventoryAvg CPL
Q1 202440—0.3648834.76
Q2 202441—0.37711127.20
Q3 202448—0.38413439.97
Q4 202450—0.28615035.60
Q1 202556—0.38413040.89
Q2 202556-0.39412125.82
Q3 202572—0.33112728.77
Q4 202575-0.39413915.58

Insight: Strong negative correlation throughout. CPL collapsed from 35 to 16 as market expanded.

Land for Sale

QuarterDistrictsCorrelationAvg InventoryAvg CPL
Q1 2024110-0.00715315.03
Q2 2024106—0.11713118.40
Q3 2024110—0.04114621.36
Q4 2024108—0.22813421.84
Q1 2025106—0.13910326.30
Q2 202591-0.2658626.22
Q3 2025108—0.1809226.01
Q4 2025107—0.1829818.94

Insight: Started with near-zero correlation, shifted moderately negative as supply contracted.

Key Insights & Implications

1. Rental vs Sales Divergence

The rental market demonstrates network effects:

  • More inventory → more seekers → stable per-listing engagement
  • Contact rate improving (4.3% → 6.6% for apartments)

The sales market shows supply dilution:

  • Fixed buyer pool spread across growing inventory
  • Per-listing engagement dropping 40-68%

2. Seasonal Patterns

SeasonEffect
AugustPeak contacts - relocation season
FebruaryTrough - lowest engagement
Q4Softening - end-of-year decline
RamadanVariable impact by category

3. 2025 Sales Market Warning Signs

The dramatic CPL drops signal:

  • Oversupply crisis in apartments and big flats for sale
  • Price adjustment pressure expected
  • Promotion opportunity - SOV/Golden campaigns more valuable

4. Land Market Anomaly

Unlike other categories, Land for Sale:

  • Inventory decreased 38% (regulatory? consolidation?)
  • CPL remained stable
  • May indicate shift to institutional holdings

Market Health Summary

CategoryHealthInventory ΔCPL ΔRecommendation
Apartment for Rent✅ Strong+149%—24%Expand in undersupplied districts
Villa for Rent✅ Healthy+82%+6%Stable growth opportunity
Big Flat for Rent✅ Growing+104%—10%Monitor for 2026 saturation
Land for Rent✅ Stable+54%—8%Niche, maintain levels
Apartment for Sale⚠️ Oversupplied+131%—63%Price pressure, promote
Villa for Sale⚠️ Saturated+12%—32%Differentiation needed
Big Flat for Sale🔴 Crisis+226%—66%Expect corrections
Land for Sale📊 Contracting—38%+8%Monitor regulatory impact

SQL Queries Used

WITH
  monthly_listing_stats AS (
    SELECT
      s.id AS listing_id,
      l.category AS category_id,
      l.district_id,
      toStartOfMonth (toDate (s.day_time)) AS MONTH,
      sum(s.views) AS monthly_views,
      sum(s.calls + s.whatsapp + s.msgs) AS monthly_contacts
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
      JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
      JOIN sadb_districts d FINAL ON l.district_id = d.district_id
    WHERE
      l._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
      AND toDate (s.day_time) >= '2024-01-01'
      AND d.city_name = 'الرياض'
    GROUP BY
      s.id,
      l.category,
      l.district_id,
      MONTH
    HAVING
      monthly_views >= 10 -- Filter: minimum 10 views per month
  )
SELECT
  c.name_en AS category,
  mls.month,
  count(DISTINCT mls.listing_id) AS inventory,
  sum(mls.monthly_contacts) AS total_contacts,
  sum(mls.monthly_views) AS total_views,
  round(
    sum(mls.monthly_contacts) / count(DISTINCT mls.listing_id),
    2
  ) AS contacts_per_listing,
  round(
    sum(mls.monthly_contacts) / nullIf(sum(mls.monthly_views), 0) * 100,
    2
  ) AS contact_rate_pct
FROM
  monthly_listing_stats mls
  JOIN sadb_categories c FINAL ON mls.category_id = c.category_id
WHERE
  c.name_en IN (
    'Villa for Sale',
    'Villa for Rent',
    'Apartment for Sale',
    'Apartment for Rent',
    'Big Flat for Sale',
    'Big Flat for Rent',
    'Land for Sale',
    'Land for Rent'
  )
GROUP BY
  c.name_en,
  mls.month
ORDER BY
  category,
  MONTH

Quarterly District Correlation (Filtered for ≥30 views/quarter)

WITH
  quarterly_listing_stats AS (
    SELECT
      s.id AS listing_id,
      l.category AS category_id,
      d.district_name,
      toStartOfQuarter (toDate (s.day_time)) AS quarter,
      sum(s.views) AS quarterly_views,
      sum(s.calls + s.whatsapp + s.msgs) AS quarterly_contacts
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
      JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
      JOIN sadb_districts d FINAL ON l.district_id = d.district_id
    WHERE
      l._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
      AND toDate (s.day_time) >= '2024-01-01'
      AND d.city_name = 'الرياض'
    GROUP BY
      s.id,
      l.category,
      d.district_name,
      quarter
    HAVING
      quarterly_views >= 30 -- ~10 views/month * 3 months
  ),
  quarterly_district AS (
    SELECT
      c.name_en AS category,
      qls.quarter,
      qls.district_name,
      count(DISTINCT qls.listing_id) AS inventory,
      sum(qls.quarterly_contacts) AS total_contacts
    FROM
      quarterly_listing_stats qls
      JOIN sadb_categories c FINAL ON qls.category_id = c.category_id
    WHERE
      c.name_en IN (
        'Villa for Sale',
        'Villa for Rent',
        'Apartment for Sale',
        'Apartment for Rent',
        'Big Flat for Sale',
        'Big Flat for Rent',
        'Land for Sale',
        'Land for Rent'
      )
    GROUP BY
      c.name_en,
      qls.quarter,
      qls.district_name
    HAVING
      inventory >= 10
  )
SELECT
  category,
  quarter,
  count(*) AS num_districts,
  round(corr(inventory, total_contacts / inventory), 3) AS corr_inv_contacts_per_listing,
  round(avg(inventory), 0) AS avg_inventory,
  round(avg(total_contacts / inventory), 2) AS avg_contacts_per_listing
FROM
  quarterly_district
GROUP BY
  category,
  quarter
HAVING
  num_districts >= 10
ORDER BY
  category,
  quarter

Year-over-Year Comparison (Filtered)

WITH
  monthly_listing_stats AS (
    SELECT
      s.id AS listing_id,
      l.category AS category_id,
      toMonth (toDate (s.day_time)) AS month_num,
      toYear (toDate (s.day_time)) AS YEAR,
      sum(s.views) AS monthly_views,
      sum(s.calls + s.whatsapp + s.msgs) AS monthly_contacts
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
      JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
      JOIN sadb_districts d FINAL ON l.district_id = d.district_id
    WHERE
      l._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
      AND toDate (s.day_time) >= '2024-01-01'
      AND d.city_name = 'الرياض'
    GROUP BY
      s.id,
      l.category,
      month_num,
      YEAR
    HAVING
      monthly_views >= 10
  ),
  monthly_agg AS (
    SELECT
      c.name_en AS category,
      mls.month_num,
      mls.year,
      count(DISTINCT mls.listing_id) AS inventory,
      round(
        sum(mls.monthly_contacts) / count(DISTINCT mls.listing_id),
        2
      ) AS contacts_per_listing
    FROM
      monthly_listing_stats mls
      JOIN sadb_categories c FINAL ON mls.category_id = c.category_id
    WHERE
      c.name_en IN (
        'Villa for Sale',
        'Villa for Rent',
        'Apartment for Sale',
        'Apartment for Rent',
        'Big Flat for Sale',
        'Big Flat for Rent',
        'Land for Sale',
        'Land for Rent'
      )
    GROUP BY
      c.name_en,
      mls.month_num,
      mls.year
  )
SELECT
  category,
  month_num,
  maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2024) AS inventory_2024,
  maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2024) AS cpl_2024,
  maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2025) AS inventory_2025,
  maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2025) AS cpl_2025,
  round(
    (
      maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2025) - maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2024)
    ) / maxIf (inventory, YEAR = 2024) * 100,
    1
  ) AS inventory_yoy_pct,
  round(
    (
      maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2025) - maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2024)
    ) / maxIf (contacts_per_listing, YEAR = 2024) * 100,
    1
  ) AS cpl_yoy_pct
FROM
  monthly_agg
WHERE
  YEAR IN (2024, 2025)
GROUP BY
  category,
  month_num
HAVING
  inventory_2024 > 0
  AND inventory_2025 > 0
ORDER BY
  category,
  month_num