Inventory vs Views Correlation Analysis

Date: 2026-01-14 Data Period: 2024-2025 Analyst: Claude Code

Executive Summary

This analysis examines the correlation between listing inventory and views across Aqar’s top 5 property categories, with district-level granularity. Key findings:

Platform-wide correlation is weak (0.18) - adding more listings doesn’t proportionally increase views
Optimal inventory range: 140K-160K active listings platform-wide for maximum views/listing
Villa for Sale experiencing market-wide demand collapse (-30-40% YoY across all top districts)
Rental categories showing growth - Apartment for Rent and Villa for Rent are expanding
Geographic shift: Jeddah apartment sales growing while Riyadh declining

Part 1: Historical Correlation (2020-2025)

Listings vs Views Over Time

Year	New Listings	Total Views	Avg Views/Listing	Active Users
2020	808,832	672,973,495	678.89	N/A
2021	1,088,216	714,033,854	547.43	N/A
2022	1,178,584	622,827,389	445.38	1,406,625
2023	603,129	438,941,972	478.35	1,661,736
2024	392,380	437,583,087	868.29	1,875,887
2025	482,424	421,725,270	695.23	2,014,084

Key Observations

Listings dropped 67% from 2022 peak (1.18M) to 2024 low (392K)
Avg views/listing nearly doubled from 445 (2022) to 868 (2024)
Active users grew 43% from 2022 to 2025 despite inventory decline
2023 regulatory changes caused the dramatic listing drop (REGA licensing enforcement)

Part 2: Platform-Wide Optimal Inventory

Correlation Analysis

Metric	Value
Pearson Correlation (Listings ↔ Views)	0.178 (Weak)
Avg Monthly Listings	155,893
Avg Monthly Views	35.8M

Optimal Inventory Buckets

Inventory Range	Months	Avg Views/Listing	Engagement/Listing
< 140K	7	231	6.6
140K-160K	6	275	8.96
160K-180K	7	226	9.58
180K+	4	181	8.81

Optimal Platform Inventory: 140,000 - 160,000 active listings

At 180K+ listings, views per listing drop by 34% compared to optimal range.

Part 3: Category-Level Analysis

Correlation by Category

Category	Districts	Correlation	Avg District Views	Interpretation
Land for Sale	310	0.978	237K	Linear scaling
Villa for Rent	89	0.960	266K	Strong demand
Apartment for Rent	280	0.930	1.08M	Growth headroom
Villa for Sale	217	0.915	677K	Matched supply/demand
Apartment for Sale	173	0.661	405K	Saturated segments

Monthly Trends by Category

Category	Peak Month	Peak Views	2024→2025 Trend
Apartment for Rent	Aug 2024	18.5M	Growing (+21%)
Villa for Sale	Aug 2024	9.5M	Declining (-36%)
Land for Sale	Aug 2024	5.3M	Declining (-27%)
Apartment for Sale	Aug 2024	4.4M	Stable
Villa for Rent	Aug 2024	1.7M	Growing (+12%)

Part 4: District-Level Analysis

Apartment for Rent - Top Districts by Total Views

Rank	City	District	Total Views	YoY %	Trend
1	الرياض	النرجس	11.4M	+9.7%	Stable
2	الرياض	الملقا	8.5M	—7.7%	Stable
3	الرياض	العارض	8.3M	—5.8%	Stable
4	الرياض	ظهرة لبن	8.2M	+8.4%	Stable
5	الرياض	المونسية	7.7M	+4.3%	Stable

Fastest Growing (Apartment for Rent):

الرياض - السليمانية: +53.2% YoY
الخبر - الحمرا: +34.8% YoY
الدمام - الشعلة: +28.8% YoY

Villa for Sale - Top Districts (DECLINING)

Rank	City	District	Total Views	YoY %	Trend
1	الرياض	النرجس	7.2M	—29.9%	Declining
2	الرياض	العارض	5.6M	—31.5%	Declining
3	الرياض	الرمال	5.6M	—29.0%	Declining
4	الرياض	المهدية	5.2M	—39.4%	Declining
5	الرياض	طويق	4.3M	—38.7%	Declining

Critical Finding: Every top Villa for Sale district shows 29-40% YoY decline.

Land for Sale - Top Districts

Rank	City	District	Total Views	YoY %	Trend
1	الرياض	بنبان	4.0M	—22.2%	Declining
2	الرياض	النرجس	3.2M	—51.4%	Declining
3	الرياض	الشرق	2.9M	—30.9%	Declining

Villa for Rent - Fastest Growing

District	Total Views	YoY %
الرياض - الجنادرية	0.5M	+100.6%
الرياض - مطار الملك خالد	0.7M	+61.3%
الدمام - الشعلة	0.3M	+52.0%

Part 5: Optimal Inventory by District

Marginal Views per Listing by Inventory Size

Category	< 500	500-1K	1K-2K	2K-5K	5K+	Optimal
Apt for Rent	1,606	1,457	1,483	1,246	866	< 2K
Villa for Sale	1,382	1,188	850	1,018	705	< 1K
Villa for Rent	998	775	513	609	—	< 500
Apt for Sale	871	504	499	425	171	< 500
Land for Sale	510	520	516	577	514	Any

Recommended Optimal Inventory per District

Category	Optimal per District	Rationale
Apartment for Rent	1,000-2,000	Diminishing returns above 2K
Villa for Sale	500-1,000	Sharp decline above 1K
Villa for Rent	200-500	Premium market, small inventory
Apartment for Sale	300-500	Saturated in many districts
Land for Sale	Any	Linear returns (distribute evenly)

Part 6: Oversupplied vs Undersupplied Districts

Most Oversupplied (Reduce Inventory)

Category	City	District	Current	Optimal	Oversupply
Apt for Sale	الرياض	الجنادرية	209	12	+1,643%
Apt for Sale	الدمام	الشاطئ الغربي	132	10	+1,220%
Apt for Sale	الرياض	المهدية	794	75	+959%
Apt for Rent	الدمام	السيف	107	13	+720%

Most Undersupplied (Growth Opportunity)

Category	City	District	Current	Optimal	Gap
Apt for Rent	ابها	درة المنسك	38	73	—49%
Apt for Rent	جدة	الفروسية	37	55	—34%
Apt for Rent	جدة	الشاطئ	47	61	—23%
Apt for Rent	الدمام	طيبة	44	57	—23%

Part 7: Strategic Recommendations

Immediate Actions

Reduce Villa for Sale inventory in Riyadh by 20-30% - market-wide demand decline
Expand Apartment for Rent in growing districts:
- السليمانية (+53% growth)
- الحمرا in Khobar (+35% growth)
- الشعلة in Dammam (+29% growth)
Redistribute Land for Sale from النرجس (-51%) to more stable areas

Market Positioning

Category	Strategy	Target Inventory
Apartment for Rent	Expand	25K → 30K
Villa for Sale	Contract	28K → 20K
Land for Sale	Redistribute	Maintain 28K, shift geography
Apartment for Sale	Shift to Jeddah	Maintain 32K
Villa for Rent	Focus premium	Maintain 5K

Key Metrics to Monitor

Views per listing threshold: Maintain above 500 platform-wide
Listings per active user ratio: Target 0.20-0.22
District saturation: Alert when oversupply exceeds 200%

Appendix: SQL Queries Used

Platform Correlation Query

WITH
  monthly_data AS (
    SELECT
      toYear (toDate (day_time)) AS YEAR,
      toMonth (toDate (day_time)) AS MONTH,
      COUNT(DISTINCT id) AS listings,
      SUM(views) AS views
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats FINAL
    WHERE
      day_time > 0
      AND _peerdb_is_deleted = 0
      AND toYear (toDate (day_time)) >= 2024
      AND toYear (toDate (day_time)) <= 2025
    GROUP BY
      YEAR,
      MONTH
  )
SELECT
  ROUND(corr(listings, views), 4) AS correlation_listings_views,
  ROUND(avg(listings), 0) AS avg_monthly_listings,
  ROUND(avg(views), 0) AS avg_monthly_views
FROM
  monthly_data

District-Level Category Analysis Query

SELECT
  d.city_name,
  d.district_name,
  SUM(s.views) AS total_views_2024_2025,
  SUM(
    CASE
      WHEN toYear (toDate (s.day_time)) = 2024 THEN s.views
      ELSE 0
    END
  ) AS views_2024,
  SUM(
    CASE
      WHEN toYear (toDate (s.day_time)) = 2025 THEN s.views
      ELSE 0
    END
  ) AS views_2025,
  ROUND(
    (views_2025 - views_2024) / NULLIF(views_2024, 0) * 100,
    1
  ) AS yoy_growth_pct
FROM
  sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
  JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
  JOIN sadb_districts d FINAL ON l.district_id = d.district_id
WHERE
  s.day_time > 0
  AND s._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
  AND l._peerdb_is_deleted = 0
  AND l.category = 1 -- Apartment for Rent
  AND toYear (toDate (s.day_time)) >= 2024
GROUP BY
  d.city_name,
  d.district_name
ORDER BY
  total_views_2024_2025 DESC

Optimal Inventory Bucket Query

WITH
  district_stats AS (
    SELECT
      l.category,
      l.district_id,
      SUM(s.views) AS total_views,
      COUNT(DISTINCT s.id) AS total_listings
    FROM
      sadb_stats_listings_stats s FINAL
      JOIN sadb_listings l FINAL ON s.id = l.id
    WHERE
      toYear (toDate (s.day_time)) >= 2024
    GROUP BY
      l.category,
      l.district_id
    HAVING
      total_listings >= 50
  )
SELECT
  c.name_en AS category,
  CASE
    WHEN total_listings < 500 THEN '< 500'
    WHEN total_listings < 1000 THEN '500-1K'
    WHEN total_listings < 2000 THEN '1K-2K'
    ELSE '2K+'
  END AS inventory_bucket,
  COUNT(*) AS districts,
  ROUND(SUM(total_views) / SUM(total_listings), 0) AS marginal_views_per_listing
FROM
  district_stats
  JOIN sadb_categories c ON category = c.category_id
GROUP BY
  c.name_en,
  inventory_bucket

Data Quality Notes

Data Period: 2024-01-01 to 2025-12-31
Filter Applied: _peerdb_is_deleted = 0 and FINAL modifier
Minimum Thresholds:
- District analysis: ≥50 listings
- Correlation analysis: ≥100 listings
Caveat: Pre-2024 data excluded due to regulatory changes affecting comparability